The future of biological warfare

It is an axiom of human history that whatever technology is available will be applied in warfare as one side or the other seeks to gain an advantage. Humans are unique among the species in their capacity for fighting prolonged conflicts where the nature of the war reflects the types of technologies available. Stone, metal, leather, wood, domesticated animals, wheels, etc. were each exploited by ancient societies in warfare. In late antiquity the adoption of the stirrup in Western Europe transformed warfare by enhancing the fighting capacity of the mounted warrior, which eventually led to the emergence and prominence of the knightly class. More recently gunpowder, steam engines, aircraft, chemicals, electronics and nuclear physics were employed in warfare. In each epoch, the technologies available had enormous influence on the strategy and tactics used. Biological warfare is ancient but its applicability to the battlefield has been limited by its unpredictability, blowback possibility and uncertain efficacy. However, the biological revolution that began in the mid-20th century has led to the development of powerful technologies that could potentially be used to generate new biological weapons of tremendous destructive power. Although biological warfare is currently prohibited by the 1972 Biological and Toxic Weapons Convention (BTWC) a review of prior attempts to limit the use of certain weapons such as the medieval crossbow, and more recently gas warfare, provides little encouragement for the notion that a technology that is useful in war can be limited by treaty. Furthermore, the BTWC restrictions apply only to signatory nation states and are irrelevant to terrorist organizations or lone wolves type of terrorists. Given the human track record for conflict and the potential power of biological warfare we are led to the sad conclusion that biological warfare has a future, and that society must prepare for the eventuality that it will used again by either nations or individuals. In this essay I will try to peek into the far horizon to identify some general themes that might be helpful in protecting against future horrors fully aware that the nature of technological change is so rapid and profound that any such view must necessarily be myopic.